Election latest: Labour to win landslide and Farage to become MP for first time, poll projects (2024)

Election news
  • Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge is live - watch in stream above
  • Tories heading for worst-ever defeat - poll
  • The senior Conservatives who could lose their seats
  • Other headlines from major survey include the biggest Labour landslide ever, victory for Farage and defeat for Corbyn
  • It's the last day to register to vote - read our handy guide
  • Live reporting by Samuel Osborne and (earlier)Faith Ridler
Expert analysis
  • Tom Cheshire:The data behind the public's view of immigration
  • Darren McCaffrey:PM's trip to luxury village shows no seat is safe
Election essentials
  • Check parties' manifesto pledges:Conservatives|Greens|Labour|Lib Dems|Plaid Cymru|Reform
  • Trackers:Who's leading polls?|Is PM keeping promises?
  • Campaign Heritage:Memorable moments from elections gone by
  • Follow Sky's politics podcasts:Electoral Dysfunction|Politics At Jack And Sam's
  • Read more:Who is standing down?|Key seats to watch|What counts as voter ID?|Check if your constituency is changing|Guide to election lingo|Sky's election night plans

19:34:48

Tory MP defends UK's relationship with France over immigration

Returning to the Politics Hub show with Sophie Ridge, and Conservative MPPhilip Dunne has been promoting the Rwanda scheme as what he calls a "deterrent" for migration.

He says a separate agreement with France had worked until 2018.

Asked whether the Conservative Party would take responsibility for a breakdown in the relationship with France, he says: "I don't think there has been a breakdown in goodwill, I think there's been a challenge of implementation."

He says the UK needs "to be talking to the French about what they can actually do to stop this".

"We need to be working together to try to solve these problems."

19:31:10

Former Tory donor endorses Labour

Former Conservative Party donor John Caudwell has announced he is endorsing and voting for Sir Keir Starmer's Labour Party.

The Phones4U founder was one of the biggest donors to the Tories ahead of the 2019 general election, donating £500,000 to Boris Johnson's campaign.

Mr Caudwell said he had been "rather despairing" at the Tories' performance "for many years now".

He said he has been critical of Tory failures in recent years, "particularly over Rishi’s mismanagement of the economy during COVID, Boris' lowering of ethical standards - and, of course, associated with that the accusation that Tory cronies benefited improperly regarding COVID PPE – and then the Liz Truss debacle."

He added: "We need a very strong Labour government that can take extremely bold decisions and you can rest assured that I will be doing my best to influence them wherever I can, in putting the great back in Britain."

Sir Keir said:"I’m delighted that John, someone with such a successful track record in business, has today thrown his support behind the changed Labour Party that I lead."

He added: "John was not just a Conservative voter but a substantial donor to the Conservative Party in 2019 - so it’s not a decision that he will have taken lightly. But it’s clear that he shares my plan for growth that I set out in the Labour manifesto."

19:24:17

Deal with smuggling gangs 'in the same way you would deal with terrorists'

During our panel discussion about immigration, Jim Murphy, former leader of Scottish Labour, tellsSophy Ridgea Labour policy that may work to reduce immigration is "dealing with the gangs in the same way you would deal with terrorists".

Mr Murphy says: "We were promised Brexit would stop all this and it hasn't. So we have to do something different. And all the parties will struggle with this."

He says people want to come to the UK because "for all the faults in our country, it's still a very appealing place to be".

A change of government would give a fresh chance to look at the issue, adding: "The one thing I think that Labour's cottoned on to, I think may work, is dealing with the gangs in the same way that you would deal with terrorists.

"Without any empathy, without any excuses, and with the full force of the law. I can only hope that that would work."

19:18:27

Dodds won't be drawn on beer duty freeze or fiscal event - but does reveal favourite drink

Labour's Anneliese Dodds says communities need to be "unleashed" to keep pubs as local hubs.

Publicans are finding it too difficult to keep their establishments once property developers "start circling", she says.

The party chair dodges the question when asked if Labour would extend the beer duty freeze.

But she does give some insight into her favourite bar beverage - real ale.

Sophy Ridgeturns to comments made today by shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves, who said she wants Labour to "hit the ground running" if they win the election.

Asked if that means there would be a fiscal event before summer, Ms Dodds says only that Mr Reeves will be "thinking this through very carefully".

19:11:05

Country needs 'clear plan' to tackle migration, Labour says

Our first guest is Labour's shadow equalities secretary Anneliese Dodds, who tellsSophy Ridgethe country needs a "clear plan" to tackle migration.

She says the Conservatives have not delivered the necessary changes and Labour has a clear plan in relation to stopping small boats, adding: "We cannot continue with a situation where criminal gangs are operating with impunity.

"Labour set out that plan to stop those criminal gangs (referring to the party's proposal for a new border command), to stop that vile trade.

"But we also need to have a clear plan on migration for work, where we've seen such a huge rise under the Conservatives, again with no plan."

She says "Labour has a plan to ensure we can deal with that too", highlighting the need to train a domestic workforce to help in sectors like health and social care.

Labour faces 'challenge' to convince voters

Ms Dodds was also challenged on polling showing 52% of voters saying they do not believe Labour is being honest on migration.

She told Sophy she can see why people are "cynical about the power of politics" after hearing so many promises by the government.

She says it is "a challenge for all politicians" and says Labour is "determined to turn our country around, to be really upfront with people about where there are challenges".

19:07:01

What the public make of immigration

As Sophy Ridge outlined in the previous post, immigration is front of mind for many voters heading to the polls on 4 July.

More people in the UK think immigration has a negative impact on society compared to a positive one, according to a new survey carried out by YouGov exclusively for Sky News.

Across the UK, 43% of people asked thought that immigration has a negative impact on British society, compared to 35% who said it has a positive impact.

Our online campaign correspondent Tom Cheshire has been diving into the data behind what is one of the biggest issues at this election:

19:03:02

Deep distrust over immigration promises shows scale of challenge for next government

Hundreds of people gathered on the shoreline in France, clambering on to dinghies, some with young babies.

Such scenes are the perfect illustration of the immigration challenge facing whoever wins the next election.

But there's another thing that illustrates the scale of the challenge.

Sky News polling by YouGov reveals a deep distrust in all parties.

52% of people said they think Labour aren't telling the truth about what they think of immigration – and 49% think the same of the Conservatives.

And they don't think either party will sort it out.

People told us they think immigration would increase under both a Labour government and a Conservative one - even though their official plans are to reduce it.

People just don't believe they’ll make good on their promises.

And that deep-seated distrust, that cynicism, is the real challenge facing whoever wins the next election.

19:00:01

Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge is live

Our weeknight politics showPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgeis live now on Sky News.

The fast-paced programme dissects the inner workings of Westminster, with interviews, insights, and analysis - bringing you, the audience, into the corridors of power.

After a relatively quiet day, Sophy will be joined by Labour Party chairAnneliese Doddsand former Conservative MPPhilip Dunne.

And on Sophy's panel are:

  • Jim Murphy, former leader of Scottish Labour;
  • Nimco Ali, former government adviser.

Watch live on Sky News, in the stream at the top of this page, and follow live updates here in the Politics Hub.

WatchPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgefrom Monday to Thursday on Sky channel 501, Virgin channel 602, Freeview channel 233, on theSky News websiteandappor onYouTube.

18:45:01

Our weeknight politics showPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgewill be live on Sky News from 7pm.

The fast-paced programme dissects the inner workings of Westminster, with interviews, insights, and analysis - bringing you, the audience, into the corridors of power.

After a relatively quiet day, Sophy will be joined by Labour Party chair Anneliese Dodds and former Conservative MP Philip Dunne.

And on Sophy's panel are:

  • Jim Murphy, former leader of Scottish Labour;
  • Nimco Ali, former government adviser.

Watch live on Sky News, in the stream at the top of this page, and follow live updates here in the Politics Hub.

WatchPolitics Hubfrom 7pm every night during the election campaign on Sky channel 501, Virgin channel 602, Freeview channel 233, on theSky News websiteandappor onYouTube.

18:26:39

Which senior Tory figures could lose seats according to new poll?

A new poll puts Labour on course to win more than 450 seats and the biggest majority of any post-war government, with the Tories set to see their worst electoral defeat in history (see previous post).

The Ipsos poll predicted the Conservatives would win just 115 seats, meaning several senior Tory figures would lose their seats.

Let's have a look at who they are and what their previous majority in their constituencies was.

Grant Shapps

The defence secretary has been the MP for Welwyn Hatfield in Hertfordshire since 2005. He won the seat with 27,394 votes in 2019, a majority of 52.6%.

He is standing against Jack Aaron for Reform UK, Sarah Butcher for the Greens, Andrew Lewin for Labour and John Munro for the Liberal Democrats.

Penny Mordaunt

Penny Mordaunt has served as the leader of the House of Commons and has been the MP for Portsmouth North since 2010.

Ms Mordaunt, who has twice run for the Tory party leadership, held the seat with 61.4% of the vote in 2019, securing 28,172 votes.

She will face Simon Dodd from the Liberal Democrats, Amanda Martin from Labour, Stuart Robinson from the Greens and Melvyn Todd from Reform UK.

Gillian Keegan

The education secretary has been MP for Chichester in West Sussex since 2017 and won 35,402 votes in 2019 (57.8%).

On 4 July she will go up against the Liberal Democrats' Jess Brown-Fuller, Labour's Tom Collinge, Reform UK's Teresa De Santis, independent Andrew Emerson and the Greens' Tim Young.

Johnny Mercer

Johnny Mercer, the veterans affairs minister, has been MP for Plymouth Moor View since 2015.

He held the seat with 26,831 votes or 60.7% in 2019, and is standing against Shaun Hooper from Reform UK, Sarah Martin from the Liberal Democrats, Georgia Nelson from the Greens and Fred Thomas from Labour.

Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg

Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg has been the MP for North East Somerset since 2010 and has previously served as the leader of the House of Commons and minister for Brexit opportunities.

He garnered 28,360 votes (50.4%) in 2019.

The constituency will be reformed into North East Somerset and Hanham for the general election, where Sir Jacob will contest the seat against Barmy Brunch from the Monster Raving Loony Party, Edmund Cannon from the Greens, independent Nicholas Hales, Reform UK's Paul MacDonnell, Dan Norris from Labour and Dine Romero from the Liberal Democrats.

Election latest: Labour to win landslide and Farage to become MP for first time, poll projects (2024)

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